Sunday, November 27, 2011

Kyle Orton: Two-time reject or one-time savior?


Kyle Orton is now a Chief. He used to be the QB with the Bears and he used to be the QB with the Broncos. It’s kind of like marrying someone who has been married twice before. Either they’ve got insurmountable baggage or they have learned what not to do. KC fans have to hope for the latter.
COOL FACTOID: Orton wore #18 in Chicago and #8 in Denver. Presumably, that means he would either wear #28 in KC or #-2. As it turns out #28, #18, #8 and yes, #-2 are all available. Cassel wears #7.
Orton has a checkered history in the NFL, but when a team is down to its last 6’1”, 215 pound left-handed quarterback named Tyler (also Thigpen)… you take what you can get. At least in Orton’s case, he has potential.

Here are his career raw stats.

Team
G
Pct
Yds
Yds/G
TD
Int
Sck
Rate
2005
CHI
15
51.6
1,869
124.6
9
13
30
59.7
2006
CHI
0







2007
CHI
3
53.8
478
159.3
3
2
2
73.9
2008
CHI
15
58.5
2,972
198.1
18
12
27
79.6
2009
DEN
16
62.1
3,802
237.6
21
12
29
86.8
2010
DEN
13
58.8
3,653
281.0
20
9
34
87.5
2011
DEN
5
58.7
979
195.8
8
7
9
75.7
-
As you can see, he had over 10,000 yards passing the last three seasons. There are 13 NFL QBs that can make that claim, so in one sense, he’s in pretty good company.
The group includes the following (in order of most yards): Brees, P.Manning, Rivers, Rodgers, Schaub, Cutler, E.Manning, McNabb, Roethlisberger, Orton, Flacco, Favre, Ryan. FYI: Matt Cassel has 9,733 yards during this period.

Orton’s passing yardage alone easily justifies starting on an NFL team – and KC probably more than average. But, yardage alone doesn’t win Super Bowls – just ask the Chargers.

Among these 13 QB’s, Orton ranks #10 in yardage (#9 in yards per game), #13 in TD passes, #3 in fewest INTs, #12 in QB Rating, #8 in sacks, #12 in completion percentage.

Overall, those are respectable. His career record is 33-33 and he’s still only 29. So what’s the big problem?
Well, for one thing, he’s 4-14 as a starter last year and this year. Excuses can be made for that as Denver hasn’t had a very good team. Even with Tebow being 4-1 since he took over for Orton, the Broncos are suspect. Maybe Tebow is a miracle worker that Orton isn’t, but ask and ye shall receive doesn’t apply to every QB in the NFL and it’s unrealistic to expect it.

In his first four seasons, Orton was 29-19 as a starter. In fact, he had a winning record all four seasons. The question really isn’t whether or not he’s a step up from Tyler Palco, but whether he’s good enough to replace Matt Cassel – who is the same age.

I think it is obvious that KC picked up Orton to try to make something out of this season. If the team had stayed pat and say Palco were to stink up the joint, the criticism against Pioli would have been very sharp. And, the main reason why is because fans would have accused him of having no back-up plan if Cassel got injured. So, CYA is the #1 reason he’s here IMO.

But, there is more to it than that. Even though it would take a miracle, KC still has a chance in this division. Why not go for it? Secondly, if Orton performs well, perhaps he can be either kept as a backup after this season or even a challenge to Cassel for the starter’s role. That would be a good position for KC to find itself in for a change.

COOL FACTOID: Of the eight NFL divisions, the leader in the AFC Central (Oakland) has a worse record than the leader in any other division.

Orton is only under contract through this season, but Kansas City would have a shot at keeping him if the final six games are positive. It’s unlikely he is going to start in most NFL franchises – if any. So, he may well feel good about his chances in KC. Of course, all that depends upon some measure of success from here on out.
He's not expected to start against Pittsburgh, but I don’t envy Palko having the privilege. In fact, it’s likely to be the final nail in the Tyler coffin. Thus, with five games to go, Orton will have his shot.

The potential downside to all this is the draft. There may be a number of good QBs available in 2012. Should Orton give KC a couple wins they wouldn’t otherwise have, it could hurt the team’s chances at getting a good QB. But, that assumes they would be looking for a QB… and that’s probably a long-shot anyway.

If Orton and Cassel are both on the roster in 2012, it’s not unrealistic to think KC could have a very good team - and finally one with a little bit of insurance. 

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